Climate change can affect your ketchup

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Climate change disrupts several factors, this time it could interfere with tomato production – which is bad news for lovers of ketchup, pizza and other tomato products.

According to a study published n / A natural food in June of this year, the rise in temperatures makes it possible to project a global drop in the production and profitability of the “tomato cultivation” – used in ketchup and other vegetable products.

According Phys.orguntil 2050global tomato processing supply expected to decline 6% compared to the basic study of 1990-2009Italian culture being among the most affected.

“Tomatoes are grown in the open field, which means we can’t control the environment in which they grow. This makes production vulnerable to climate change,” says the lead author of the study, David Cammaranoprofessor at the University of Aarhus.

Second Dev Niyogiprofessor at the UT Jackson School of Geosciences and co-author of the study, while the impact of climate on food supply is widely studied, the focus has been on food staples like wheat and rice.

This study is among the first to comprehensively analyze the impact of climate change on tomatoes.

“We know very little about how climate change will affect specialty crops like tomatoes, which have an incredible global food footprintin addition to being a important source of nutrients and an ingredient in cuisines around the world,” Niyogi said.

The researchers used five different climate models to create three distinct scenarios, projecting how rising temperatures will influence tomato production, focusing on the three main tomato producing countries in the world: United States — California in particular — Italy and China.

Together, these countries produce about 65% of tomatoes grown in the world.

Although the results varied in degree, the scenarios projected all pointed to a future in which tomato production will change drastically in the coming decades.

Most scenarios show that all three countries will experience a steady decline in production over the next 30 to 40 years. In the study, the researchers detail different factors that can worsen or alleviate the situation depending on the country.

For example, both the Southern California like Italy are facing problems with access to water, in addition to rising temperatures, and Italy is only expected to dry up over time.

According to Cammarano, this combination of warmer temperatures and lack of water does not signal anything good for the industry Italian tomato as a whole.

“A significant number of tomato growing industries are currently located in Italy, and they must prepare for a future with a supply limited tomato from local regions“, he said.

However, in California and China, shields can be used for cooler growing areas further north.

Rising temperatures in these regions could lead to higher yields, with the study predicting a steady increase in tomato yields in northern China’s Gansu province and neighboring Mongolia.

However, even at their highest, projected yields from these regions are only a fraction of what California and Italy are currently producing.

The climate projections provided in the study raise important questions for the future of tomato production in the worldand could help agricultural and manufacturing industries prepare for the impacts of climate change, Niyogi says.

“The results of our study should become one of the elements in the development of a vulnerability assessment“, explains the researcher.

“This could help companies and foundations prioritize research and operational strategies for the future.”

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